Awards Season, Round 1: The Critics

I have taken a break for this week, and maybe next week, to step away from casting the spotlight on performances, and focus some time on what can actually win Best Picture and Best Director. I will cover Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress soon, as well as Best Picture and Director, I just wanted to catch up on watching some of them to have a solid opinion. So hold on my small amount of readers, you shall hear my thoughts soon. 

Tuesday marks the unstoppable avalanche that will continue to surprise, shock, and upset many films leaving little concern at all to the destruction it causes until we reach the bottom, that is… The Oscars. Bright and early Tuesday morning, the New York Film Critics Circle will kick off awards season by naming the few movies and performances they think are the "best", followed  by The National Board of Review who announces their picks for what they think is "best" on Wednesday, and finally on Sunday the last major critics group, The Los Angeles Film Critics Association, announces their "best". What is the best? Well that is an opinion, and like buttholes, everyone has one. The NYFCC's, the NBR, and the LAFCA awards will show us who may be a forced to be reckoned with or may even throw out or toss in films/performances that were unexpected. To The Oscars, what the critics choose is just a suggestion because they really do not care about the critics and ultimately do what they want. The critics’ awards merely herd in the "best movies" like cattle to show us what is the best to offer. Their track record for picking winners that match with Oscar winners goes something like this:

(based on the last ten years, of course)

Best Picture-

NYFCC: they have matched Best Picture 3 times in the past ten years (2003 Lord of the Rings Return of the King, 2007 No Country for Old Men, and 2011 The Artist ). The other winners in the last ten years that they chose all went on to be Best Picture nominees, minus United 93 which oddly settled for Best Director nomination. 

NBR: their group only matched Best Picture 2 times (2007 No Country for Old Men and 2008 Slumdog Millionaire). The other 8 winners all went on to be Best Picture nominees. 

LAFCA: they only had 1 shocking match for the Oscar (2009 The Hurt Locker). All of the other winners went on to be nominated for Best picture, expect for two, one of which was the animated film Wall-e, which went on to win Best Animated Feature Film. 

Best Director- 

NYFCC: they matched Director 6 times in the past ten years (2004 Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby, 2005 Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain, 2006 Martin Scorsese for The Departed, 2007 Joel and Ethan Coen for No Country for Old Men, 2009 Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker, and 2011 Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist). Oddly, the other 4 years, only one of their winners went on to be Oscar nominated, and that was Sophia Coppola for Lost in Translation in 2003. 

NBR: they shockingly only match Oscar 2 times (2005 Ang Lee and 2006 Martin Scorsese). Of the 8 winners left only 3 others went on to be Oscar nominated. 

LAFCA: they matched Director 4 times (2003 Pete Jackson for The Lord of the Rings Return of the King, 2005 Ang Lee, 2008 Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire, and 2009 Kathryn Bigelow). Out of the remaining 6 winners they chose, 5 went on to be nominated. 

Best Actor-

NYFCC: this time they went 50/50 matching the Oscars (2006 Forest Whitaker for The Last King of Scotland, 2007 Daniel Day-Lewis for There Will be Blood, 2008 Sean Penn for Milk, 2010 Colin Firth for The King's Speech, and 2012 Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln). Out of the other five winners they chose, all but one went on to be nominated. 

NBR: they matched one less than the NYFCC's with 4 (2003 Sean Penn for Mystic River, 2004 Jamie Foxx for Ray, 2005 Phillip Seymour Hoffman for Capote, and 2006 Forest Whitaker for The Last King of Scotland). Out of the other 7 winners, 2009 they had a tie, 6 went on to be Oscar nominees. 

LAFCA: they manged to predict 6 of the Best Actor winners (2005 Phillip Seymour Hoffman, 2006 Forest Whitaker, 2007 Daniel Day-Lewis, 2008 Sean Penn, 2009 Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart, and 2010 Colin Firth). Only 2 of their other winners went on to contend for the Oscar. 

Best Actress-

NYFCC: surprisingly they only matched the Oscar 3 times (2005 Reese Witherspoon for Walk the Line, 2006 Helen Mirren for The Queen, and 2011 Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady). Out of the other 7 winners, only 4 went on to contend for the Oscar. 

NBR: Yikes! They were only on par with the Oscars 1 time (2006 Helen Mirren for the Queen). They made up this by having 7 of their winners go on to be Oscar nominated. This category clearly did not suit either of the critics groups. 

LAFCA: they matched the Oscar the same as the NYFCC with 3 times (2006 Helen Mirren, 2007 Marion Cotillard for La Vie en Rose, and 2012 Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook). Of the remaining 7 winners only 3 went on to be nominated for the Oscar. 

Best Supporting Actor-

NYFCC: only 2 matches (2007 Javier Bardem for No Country for Old Men and 2009 Christophe Waltz for Inglourious Basterds). Out of the 8 other winners, 5 were Oscar nominated. 

NBR: they also only had 2 matches (2010 Christian Bale for The Fighter and 2011 Christopher Plummer for The Beginners). All but one of the 8 winners they chose went on to be nominated. 

LAFCA: they managed to predict one more winner than the other two groups with 3 matches (2008 Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight, 2009 Christophe Waltz, and 2011 Christopher Plummer). Only 2 of their other winners went on to be nominated at the Oscars. 

Best Supporting Actress-

NYFCC: 4 of their winners matched Oscar (2006 Jennifer Hudson for Dreamgirls, 2008 Penelope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona, 2009 Mo'Nique for Precious, 2010 Melissa Leo for The Fighter). Of the remaining 6 winners, all but one of them received an Oscar nomination. 

NBR: Yikes again! Only one match for the Oscar (2008 Penelope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona). Out of the 9 other winners, 5 went on to contend for the Oscar. 

LAFCA: 2 of their winners match Oscar (2008 Penelope Cruz and 2009 Mo'Nique). Out of the remaining 8 winners, all but 1 were nominated at the Oscars. 

(Those six categories are the only categories I plan on discussing right now, and for the most part will center my focus on throughout awards season. The other categories that I plan to touch on are: Best Animated Feature, Best Original and Adapted Screenplay, and possibly Best Cinematography. )

As we head in to the critics groups round of award season, it is important to take their winners with a grain of salt. They have never matched 100% and as you see their definition of what is best differs vastly than what the Academy thinks is best. Why they matter is because it just shows the strength or weakness of movies and performances that are just getting that "Oscar buzz". They throw in movies and performances that give people the chance to learn about them upon them showing up in a critics group, and that can make a difference as to who or what may get one of the coveted spots come nomination morning. The best way I can show you how that matters is 2004. 

In 2004 everyone predicted Martin Scorsese, and his film The Aviator, to finally get the Oscar for Directing and Picture that Scorsese had long deserved. Scorsese and his movie were picking up most of the Directing and Pictures awards; but in December, an unexpected Clint Eastwood and his film, Million Dollar Baby, came on the scene and started to take hold of the Oscar. Million Dollar Baby slowly worked its way in by only winning Director at the New York Film Critics Circle, then it won a special achievement award at the National Board of Review.  Next stop came the acting traction with Hilary Swank being the sole winner at The Broadcast Film Critics Choice, next stop it won Best Actress for Swank and Director for Clint at the Golden Globes. The Screen Actors Guild Awards honored, yet again, Hilary Swank and then put Morgan Freeman on the radar when he won Best Supporting Actor. Clint then won The Directors Guild Award. Then came the final battle where Million Dollar finally took Best Picture, Director, Actress, and Supporting Actor at the Academy Awards. Everyone had completely underestimated the movie’s power, and many saw it creeping along and got the chance to watch it become a tidal wave that knocked Scorsese and The Aviator off its pedestal. Could we see this happen again? Anything is possible at this point. 

The critics’ awards put movies and performances on everyone's radar, so that is why we pay attention to them. Sometimes they pick left field choices that we know stand little to no chance, or sometimes we see a winner that we know will have to fight hard, like Million Dollar Baby did, to win. Sometimes critic’s groups rally behind the same movies and performances, but in a year like this year I am not sure that will happen. I believe critics may split up; but like usual, I could be completely wrong. Here is my full prediction for what may go down Tuesday and Wednesday:

New York Film Critics Circle(Tuesday) 

Best Picture	12 Years a Slave
Best Actor	Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Best Actress	Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Supporting Actress	Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Supporting Actor	Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Director	Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Screenplay	Bob Nelson, Nebraska
Cinematography	Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity
Animated Film	Frozen

National Board of Review (Wednesday)

Best Picture	Gravity
Best Actor	Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Actress	Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Best Supporting Actress	Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
Supporting Actor	Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Director	Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Screenplay, Adapted	Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater, Before Midnight
Screenplay, Original	Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
Animated Film	Frozen
Ensemble Performance	The Butler

Los Angeles Film Critics Association (Sunday)

Best Picture	Gravity
Best Actor	Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Best Actress	Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color
Best Supporting Actress	June Squibb, Nebraska
Supporting Actor	Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Director	Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Animated Film	The Wind Rises
Best Screenplay	Bob Nelson, Nebraska

Who knows how close I will come to their actual winners, but I feel like I could be close. I will say this, (you can mark my words cause there could be a high possibility you may be able to throw it in my face if I am wrong), but I have this feeling that if there is anything that can beat Gravity and 12 Years a Slave it will be Martin Scorsese's, word on the street masterpiece, The Wolf of Wall Street. NEVER rule out Scorsese! Anyways, this week we finally get to see what we will be in for come Oscar time, I just love the uncertainty and unknown possibilities and equal ground of right now....but as the avalanche starts to roar Tuesday the equal ground will be broken and who knows what it will leave behind in its path.