The race to the Oscars is a long winding road, with so many
unexpected bumps, and unforeseen turns. Part of why I love doing this, aside
from the fact that it is important to me to reward excellence in film making,
is because the shocks of nominations and wins is just fun to watch. This past
week has been so crazy that some categories are still so up in the air, because
every award ceremony, which was suppose to create a consensus, has only
provided us with a new bump or turn in the road. Predicting who wins,
specifically for the Oscars, is becoming so unpredictable that anyone could
win. The unpredictability of this year’s Oscar race is just so much fun, and I
feel like I am on the edge of my seat constantly. Maybe its unpredictability is
because there were just so many great performances and movies nominated this
year that no one can make up their mind? I mean there is no other explanation
for it. I have never seen an Oscar year so up in the air! I hope that makes you
as excited as I am!
I cannot begin to describe to you how satisfied I was with
the Oscar nominations. Everyone I wanted to be nominated was nominated, and
that usually does not happen for me. Of course, there were shocks and some sad
disappointing snubs, as I warned, but overall I think The Academy nominated
things correctly. The sad disappointments were seeing Emma Thompson and Tom
Hanks left out of the race. I do not think anyone saw that coming. Both of them
were nominated at every big award ceremony, but they both owe their snubs to
the two major characters from one of the Best Picture front-runner trio,
American Hustle. I am referring to Amy Adams and Christian Bale. They both were
nominated sporadically at awards, but their nominations over Emma and Tom
proved that The Academy really liked American Hustle. David O. Russell has managed
to get actors nominated in every category in back to back years, and that is
something that is very rare. I am happy for both Amy and Christian, Christian
being the more deserving of the two. Some of the shocking upsets were the Oprah
snub and the Jonah Hill inclusion. Oprah was in the most overrated movie I have
seen in years, The Butler, and I was happy to see her name left off the list.
In fact, The Butler was completely shut of the Oscars. I give The Academy props
for seeing right through that movie. Jonah Hill, whom I held on to hope for a
nomination for his work in The Wolf of Wall Street, was able to push out some
stiff competition, after not a single nomination anywhere, and get a Supporting
Actor nomination. The other two shocks worth mentioning were the snubs of Paul
Greengrass for Best Director and Saving Mr. Banks for Best Picture. Paul was
replaced by Alexander Payne, the director of Nebraska, which I am okay with.
Saving Mr. Banks was replaced by Philomena, and I am okay with Saving Mr. Banks
being left out; I am more on the fence of its replacement choice. Until I see
Philomena, I feel that spot should have gone to Inside Llewyn Davis. Inside
Llewyn Davis deserved a Best Picture nomination, and that was kind of a letdown;
but like I said, overall, the nominations were great!
Now that I got that out of the way, we can discuss the state
of the Oscar race. With the Oscar nominations out and most of the major awards
having been given, there are now front-runners in each category. So let’s do a
category by category analysis, just to be aware of where we are and where we
are going.
BEST PICTURE
I have never been witness to a more unpredictable category.
12 Years a Slave has been the one to beat from the beginning, with Gravity its
strongest competitor. Then American Hustle came in, legitimately, like a
wrecking ball to challenge both films to be top dog. From award ceremony to
award ceremony, American Hustle and 12 Years would win their respected Best
Picture categories of comedy and drama with Gravity taking home Best Director.
From then on, up until last night, everyone started predicting an Oscar split
with 12 Years a Slave trumping American Hustle for Best Picture and Gravity
winning Best Director. Here is the thing, since the Academy expanded the Best
Picture category from 5 to 10, then to a number between 5 and 10, the Best
Picture winning film won both the Producer's Guild award and Director's Guild
Award, so everyone thought that the PGA and the DGA would clear up who will win
Best Picture. Nope. The PGA announced their winner last night, and they had
their first ever tie since their creation in 1989. The PGA winners were Gravity
and 12 Years a Slave. So if you wish to go by the trend of the Best Picture
winning the PGA, then American Hustle would not be winning Best Picture. That
would mean that Best Picture is now between 12 Years and Gravity, the original
two competitors. Most people are predicting that Gravity will take home the DGA.
Again, here is my thing, I feel that Best Picture and Best Director should go
hand in hand, and usually they do, it is rare to see a split. I think if
Gravity takes home the DGA, then it should win Best Picture and Director at the
Oscars. Same goes with the reverse, If 12 Years takes home DGA, then it should
win Best Picture and Director at the Oscars. The only way American Hustle will
win is if votes split between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave, and at this point
that could be a very probable outcome. American Hustle is still in the race. I
cannot see The Academy not rewarding American Hustle with at least one Oscar,
but in which category will that one be? I am not sure who the DGA will choose;
they could bring us to yet another turn in the race. It really is up to
them!
If I had to choose right now who I believe will win Best
Picture, I would choose 12 Years a Slave. My heart is behind Gravity, and I
hope to see it challenge 12 Years all the way until the announcement of the
Best Picture winner. This category is just too close to call!!
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron deserves this award. Gravity would be nothing
without his brilliant directing. He will likely win the DGA, but I could be
wrong. He has won most of the directing awards up to this point; I do not see
it stopping, although if it does, it will be by Steve McQueen or David O.
Russell. Like I already said, Director and Picture should go hand in hand. If
they love one movie enough for it to win Director, shouldn't it be loved enough
to win Best Picture? I am really not so sure anymore.
The winner should be Alfonso, could be Steve, but I would
look out for David O. Russell.
BEST ACTOR
I am not so sure anyone fully expected Matthew McConaughey
to be the front-runner for Best Actor. His performance was impressive, and
deserving for the win, but I do not feel he is a sure thing. At every award
ceremony, besides SAG, Leonardo DiCaprio and Matthew would take Best Actor in
the comedy and drama categories. Leo was not nominated at the SAG's because The
Wolf of Wall Street's screeners were not sent out in time to be seen by all of
the nomination body of voters. So it seems Matthew is the front-runner....but
Matthew was snubbed at the BAFTAS where Leo was not. There is a back in forth
thing happening between the two of them, because they have not been given the
chance to go head to head in the same category. The only time they will compete
in the same category is at the Oscars. I have a feeling Leo may win, just
because he is overdue for a win and everyone wants to see him finally win.
Matthew is his biggest challenger of course. I would not be surprised if either
of them wins. I loved both performances and I find them to be equally deserving
of the win.
My right now choice would be Matthew. If Leo wins the BAFTA,
then I feel he might finally win. It could go either way.
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett has cleaned up this awards season for her
fantastic performance in Blue Jasmine. She won every major award starting with
the critics all the way till now. People thought Sandra Bullock would be her
biggest challenger, and I thought so too until Oscar nominations. Amy Adams has
come into the spotlight, winning Best Actress on the comedy side where
Blanchett won on the drama side, the same way as Matthew and Leo have done. Amy
has not had to face off with Cate, because Amy was snubbed by SAG. Their first
chance to face off will be at the BAFTAS, if Amy happens to pull off the upset
then she has a shot at beating Cate for the Oscar. Just so we are clear though,
taking down Cate will not be easy, and it could be near impossible. The only
reason Amy has a slight chance at beating Cate would be because she has never
won an Oscar before, and Cate has. That is why I say if Amy happens to win at
the BAFTAS, look out Cate. I personally do not think Amy would be deserving
over Cate, or really any of the other women in her category. She was great in
American Hustle, but I just do not think it would be seen as a good Oscar win
if Amy were to win. Next year Amy has another shot at Best Actress, so it’s in
her best interest to wait until then, but of course it is not really up to
her.
The Oscar is Cate Blanchett's to lose. My heart wants to see
Sandra win, but that is not happening. I only advise you to keep an eye on
Amy.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
NO ONE, and I repeat NO ONE is beating Jared Leto. His
performance was fantastic! He met the great supporting actor standard: when his
character was not on screen you were left wondering where he was and what he
was doing. He will win, and rightfully so. The only thing is, he was snubbed
from the BAFTAS, not that it matters a ton because many people have been
snubbed by them and still won, but it does open up a chance for someone to
challenge him. I predict Michael Fassbender will win the BAFTA, but in the end
he does not stand a real chance at the Oscars.
Jared has this in the bag. Shout out though to Jonah Hill in
The Wolf of Wall Street. Jonah had my favorite supporting performance of the year
next to Jared. I am happy he was nominated and recognized for his incredible
performance.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
I have been on Lupita Nyong'o's side from the beginning. Out
of all of the acting performances this year, her performance in 12 Years a
Slave has remained in my head. I think about it often for some reason, and that
is a sure sign of her acting abilities. This was her debut film!! She deserves
to win, but she has a big and fierce competitor, Jennifer Lawrence. I loved
Jennifer in American Hustle. I would be happy seeing her win, again, but it
would be sad to see Lupita lose. I have no idea who will the Oscar. Both Lupita
and Jennifer have gone back and forth for wins, so I cannot see a definite
winner. Both are deserving, actually I think all of the women in the category
would be deserving!
Choosing right now, I would go with Lupita. I would be happy
with Jennifer Lawrence. My heart secretly wants Julia Roberts to win, but that
is not really an option at this stage of the race.
SCREENPLAY
No one should beat Spike Jonze's incredible writing for Her.
It will likely win Original Screenplay, although, American Hustle could win.
David O. Russell is the writer, and I can't see American Hustle not winning at
least one Oscar, so this could be it. The screenplay categories at the Oscars
generally have at least one upset. So who knows?
Adapted Screenplay, I really have no idea. It would be
between Before Midnight and 12 Years a Slave, although The Wolf of Wall Street
winning would not be a surprise.
Hopefully the WGA, Writers Guild, will clear some things up.
Right now:
Original- Her is my first choice. Look out for American Hustle.
Adapted- My gut says Before Midnight, but my gut has been
wrong before.
ANIMATED FEATURE
Frozen. Frozen. Frozen. I was sadly disappointed when
Monsters University got left off the list, which would have been my second choice.
Frozen was truly great! The past couple Disney animated musicals have really
let me down, but this one really impressed me. The music is great and the
characters were just lovable. Its biggest competition is The Wind Rises, which
cleaned up with the critics.
Again I say- Frozen. Frozen. Frozen. Although it should
watch its back for The Wind Rises.
With the DGA, WGA, BAFTAS yet to come things are left all
over the place, aside from the Supporting Actor category. The races are all
close ones, and my heart is so torn in all of them. I guess no matter what, I
should just be thankful that the nominees are great, and just be happy with
whatever and whomever wins. Like always, expect some shocks and upsets! We are
still in the same place as we were from the beginning, with no consensus,
and that only makes doing this more fun! Hold tight everyone, we are still
heading down the hill.
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