The Home Stretch

It has been almost a month since I last posted on here. I felt the need to get my thoughts together on what has turned out to be one giant mess of an Oscar year, a good, giant mess. This year is one of those random years where just about anything can happen. Oscar predictors all across the board are frantically trying to figure out all the scenarios for winners come Oscar night; many have switched sides from predicting one movie to another, others are holding on to hope that they are predicting the right movies or performances to win. Some of these predictors are trying to get in the mind of an Academy member by looking to past trends, which is generally reliable, others are predicting what their heart is telling them...but in the end neither really matter. It’s as if everyone forgot that the Academy will do what they want and do not care what critics or other voting groups have chosen as their winners; they may nominate the same films and performances, but when it comes to winners, they do what they want. This has never changed, and it seems odd that so many have forgotten that. Nevertheless, here we are on the heels of The Academy Awards with the BAFTA'S, British Academy Awards, having just announced their shocking winners and it seems like there is nothing we can do now but watch as the pieces fall.

I, of course, have in my mind what I would like to see win, what I think the Academy will do, and what my heart wants. In some categories those three thoughts align, and in others it is completely all over the place, but I think that sums up exactly how the awards race has gone this year. People would like to think that the acting categories are locked up, and that Cate Blanchett, Matthew McConaughey, Lupita Nyong'o, and Jared Leto are bound for Oscar glory, but I refuse to believe that; it is the same for Best Picture:  Gravity vs 12 Years a Slave vs American Hustle, any one of them could win. I do not believe it is as locked as everyone thinks, I firmly believe there will be surprises on Oscar night. I have said that from day one, and I am sticking to it. At this point all you can do is make a good educated guess and unless you predict completely left wing nominees, you would probably come close to predicting the winners just as much as anyone else. I say all this, but the reason I created this blog was to predict and discuss the awards, so excuse the hypocrisy, I get this way towards the end of award season.

As we are almost two weeks away from the Oscars, there was one last chance to make an impact, which was at the BAFTA’S. Final voting ballots for the Oscars were sent out on Valentine’s Day, and BAFTA announced their winners on Sunday. The BAFTA will be fresh in the minds of voters, and you best believe the voters eyes were on these winners. So here is how it went down: 

Best Picture and Director

It has always been 12 Years a Slave vs Gravity vs American Hustle. Both Gravity and 12 Years are British made films, so both of them had wide support here. I thought if Gravity won, it would take Best Picture easily at the Oscars; but it had to settle with Best British Film. 12 Years a Slave came out on top taking Best Picture, but Gravity still has a chance at the Oscar's it just is going to have to fight. The movie in question is American Hustle. The BAFTA'S voting body were the first group, besides only the Academy who followed suit, to nominate the four actors from the film. That means there is obviously some huge love and support for the film. As everyone predicted, Alfonso Cuaron won Best Director. It seems as though, the British voting body, like the rest of the big awards groups, could not pick one film over the other. It is as if nobody can choose a winner, and everyone wants to just make everyone happy. It is like team sports for kids, everyone wins! In some ways it bothers me, because Best Picture and Director should go together. It is rare for there to be a split between those two, and it is never predictable like this seems to be, which makes me think the Academy is going to go all in for Picture and Director for either 12 years or Gravity. 

Best Actor

In my mind, this category is most important to me, for one reason. LEO. I said long before Oscar nominees were announced that if Leo gets nominated he will win the Oscar. This was Leo's chance to finally take Best Actor, but the British actor Chiwetel Ejiofor took it easily while riding the tails of 12 Years a Slave. Matthew McConaughey was shockingly snubbed from the BAFTAS, so Leo really needed this. BUT, and that is a big but, now Chiwetel Ejiofor could be a threat. Matthew will likely win at the Oscars, but my hope will still be with Leo. Leo is campaigning hard, and he really wants it, but Matthew seems to be too far out in front. 

Best Actress 

I really do not think anyone can beat Cate Blanchett, she won here with ease. The only thing that could affect her at this point would be the whole Woody Allen vs Mia Farrow fiasco; people have been ruthlessly speculating if it will crush her chances at winning the Oscar, mainly because the Academy likes to stay away from controversy. The people who have decided that it will crush her have opted for Amy Adams to sweep in at the 11th hour. I am not one of those people, and find it too difficult to choose Amy over Cate. Who I want to win has no hope at this point, because I think Cate may have this wrapped up with a pretty bow. 

Best Supporting Actor 

This category will be interesting as well. Like his leading co-star, Jared Leto was snubbed by the BAFTAS. This category was wide open, and everyone predicted Michael Fassbender would win, because of the love for 12 Years. I thought Bradley Cooper would pull out the shocking win, in the well loved American Hustle. I do not think anyone expected Barkhad Abdi from Captain Phillips to come along and win. It was a cool moment, but I am not sure he stands a chance against Jared Leto. 

Best Supporting Actress 

Lots of people believed that Lupita Nyong'o had this in the bag. I understood why everyone thought that, and part of me believed it to be true. Then the other part of me felt that if the BAFTA really liked American Hustle (and this is my thinking for the Oscars as well), enough to nominate it all across the board , will they really not vote for it to win a major award? That led me to believe that maybe Jennifer Lawrence could win this, even at the Oscars. As it turns out, Jennifer came out on top, crushing Lupita. This could be the same scenario that happens at the Oscars, they loved American Hustle enough to nominate it a lot, they will reward it somewhere, and Jennifer would likely benefit from it.  

Best Adapted and Original Screenplay 

I had no idea how to predict this category within the British voting body. Adapted screenplay went to the British film, Philomena and Original went to American Hustle. Most people are predicting 12 Years a Slave for Adapted and Her for Original at the Oscars, so who knows how this will go down. 

There really has not been any change in the awards race since my last post, as you can see. You may chose to disagree with me and think some categories are locked, but I just can't shake the feeling that there is something going on that we just do not know. I could be wrong, I will admit that. At this point in the awards race the Oscar campaigns are going strong, studios are trying to throw each other’s movies under the bus and create whisper campaigns to get them to notice their movies, and it gets ugly. Who knows where we will end up in two weeks? My hope is what it has been from the beginning, as long as they award worthy winners, I can be happy. The BAFTA's presented us with some new challengers and threw off everybody. It wouldn't be a good Oscar season without some surprises, and you can't say I didn't warn ya!

Look back later for my own "For Your Consideration" pleas, not that they will be heard, for who I want to win at the Oscars!