Finally, we have come to the category that most people want
to discuss. It is funny… the people that I talk with, people who could not care
less about Oscars, find the Best Picture category worthy of discussing. Maybe
the reason for that could be that people like to watch movies and go to see
them in the theaters. It is a cultural thing. So when the subject of Best
Picture comes up, I find passion for what they consider to be the
"best" of the year. Generally, what they think is best differs
drastically from what I, or more so, The Academy thinks is best, but it is
something that stirs up discussion from people who do not even follow or care
about The Oscars. Everyone has their opinion, and of course is entitled to
that, at least for now. My personal favorite movie of the year has not even
been buzzed about for Oscars, and I am fine with that, but I will share that
later. Right now let’s just discuss what the Academy may think is
"best".
With Oscar nomination morning quickly approaching, everyone
is frantically trying to predict what or whom they will nominate. All of the
major award happenings are only enhancing the madness. They all forget a few
minor things they have to keep in mind about The Academy: One, they do not care what the critics think
is the best for any category. Two, they do what they want. Three, they prefer
the feel -good Oscar type film over the controversial/political statement
movies. Four, they like who they like and will continue to hate or nominate
whomever they so choose, ala Leonardo DiCaprio and Meryl Streep respectively.
Lastly, you cannot predict what YOU think is best, because you are not an
Academy member. If you are going to try to predict the Oscars, you must
remember those few minor points. So in saying that, I will do my best to get in
the mind of an Academy member, and share with you what they will likely
nominate for Best Picture, as well as the outside dark horses.
Here we go:
12 Years a Slave has been the one to beat since its
premiere. It is a great movie, one worthy of the title Best Picture. There has
never been a movie about slavery from a slave point of view to ever be
considered an Oscar contender. It is a movie that has stirred up talk about
slavery and the ever present reality of racism in the world today. Many critics
have said that it is a movie of our time. The film has some of the most
memorable scenes of any movie I have seen this year, that have truly stuck with
me, and that have caused me to see the importance of the film. On top of all of
that, it is one of the best acted films of the year, thanks to Chiwetel Ejifor,
Lupita Nyong'o, and Michael Fassbender. You simply cannot underestimate this
movie and down play its significance, but with as many things as it has going
for it, it has an equal amount of things going against it. Whenever there has
been a movie that has stirred up controversy at the Oscars, the voters split,
giving one film Best Picture and the other Best Director, for example; The
Godfather winning Best Picture and Bob Fosse took Best Director for Cabaret,
Chariots of Fire BP winner and Warren Beatty BD for Reds, Shakespeare in Love
BP and Spielberg BD for Saving Private Ryan, Gladiator BP and Steven Soderbergh
BD for Traffic, Chicago BP and Roman Polanski BD for The Pianist, and Crash BP
and Ang Lee BD for Brokeback Mountain. All of those movies were examples of two
movies that were loved and praised, but because one was controversial they
could not award it both Best Picture and Best Director. This could be what is
happening this year. After the Golden Globe split with 12 Years a Slave winning
Best Picture Drama and the Gravity director, Alfonso Cuaron winning Best
Director, it is likely that this is what will happen with the Academy.
Generally, if the movie is loved, so is the director, they are supposed to go
hand in hand, except when it is a controversial movie. I cannot see a scenario
where the Academy does not reward 12 Years a Slave with some big praise, be
that in acting/director/best picture. As of now, Best Picture is 12 Years a Slave’s
to lose.
Gravity has been the rival of 12 Years a Slave, and that has
not stopped. Gravity, my personal choice for Best Picture, is a show stopper.
No film this year has wowed as many people as Gravity has, and that is due mostly
to its visual effects and its thrilling story line. Sandra Bullock gives an
outstanding performance, one that I secretly would like to see her win the
Oscar for. The success of the film needs to be credited to the brilliant
directing of Alfonso Cuaron! I have watched some behind the scenes videos of
the making of Gravity, and the things they had to do to create and make the
film is just outstanding. Here is the problem with Gravity, as well loved as it
is, there has never been a movie nominated for Best Picture with only two
actors; and no 3D film has ever won Best Picture, although Avatar and Hugo came
close. The Academy demographic is too old to embrace the new technologies, but
the nominations and possible Best Director win (and hopefully Best Picture win)
could be a sign that they are ready to embrace it. Here is to hoping.
Both 12 Years a Slave and Gravity have been completely
shaken up by the unforeseen praise of American Hustle. At first everyone wrote
it off, and then out of nowhere, everyone turned around and started praising
it. It won Best Musical/Comedy Picture at the Golden Globes. It is a movie that
is easy to love; there is no controversy, no 3D, it is your standard Oscar
film. A film that does not cause you to think, it only asks that you show up to
the movie theater and enjoy, that my friends is what the Academy wants. Of
course, once you add to it Hollywood's favorite stars Amy Adams, Jennifer
Lawrence, Bradley Cooper, Christian Bale, and Jeremy Renner being directed by
an overdue director, David O. Russell, it only cements it as a formidable
challenger to any movie. It is a great movie, one that I enjoyed, but I would
not consider it the greatest choice for Best Picture. If it won, I would not be
upset, but I cannot help but think The Academy would later regret picking it
for Best Picture if they do so. American Hustle is the movie to look out for.
If it happens to clean clock with SAG ensemble, PGA, Critics Choice, and BAFTA
then this movie is a force to be reckoned with. Until then, it is simply just a
Best Picture nomination lock.
Outside of those three movies, I am not so sure what would
be next in line to win Best Picture. I can only tell you what I think is locked
for a nomination. This would also be a moment to inform you about The Academy
voting policy. The current rule for Best Picture nominations is that the
Academy will nominate anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees. That means, depending on
the love of certain movies, we could see any random number between 5 and 10,
last year and the year before there were 9. It is a preferential balloting
system which means it has to get ranked at number one on enough voters’ ballots
to get nominated for Best Picture; once those spots are filled, then the movies
that come at number 2 and 3 on ballots get shoved in to a nomination. Once a
film gets 5% of the vote, it is automatically a Best Picture contender. The
process is quite confusing, if you want an in-depth explanation, Google search
it. I am going out on a limb and assuming there will again be 9 nominees, but
for this I will choose 10, so outside of the 3 I have already discussed, the
next likely contender are;
Nebraska
Captain Phillips
Her
The Wolf of Wall Street
Those four films have run the gauntlet, and have come out
approved by critics and all of the major awards groups. I cannot see any of
them being snubbed of a nomination, but none of them really stand a chance of
winning. Just because I do not think they stand a chance in winning, does not
make them weak contenders by any means, it is just that there is no way they
can overcome the hype of 12 Years, Gravity, and American Hustle. These four
movies will also pick up other nominations for writing, maybe some acting,
possibly directing, and that will add to their strength as a contender. For
them to be a challenger to win, they would need some wins coming up in the
Critics Choice, SAG, PGA, or BAFTA, only then will I consider the possibility
of one of them winning. The next and final spots I am predicting for Best
Picture are kind of hard to choose; especially if they only pick 9.....I will
have to go with my gut;
Dallas Buyers Club
Saving Mr. Banks
Inside Llewyn Davis
Both Dallas Buyers Club and Saving Mr. Banks got nominated
at the PGA awards, and of course some other nominations, but because the PGA
has a heavy influence on the Best Picture race I felt like they are the two
that would be chosen. I really feel though, that Inside Llewyn Davis will make
it in, but it just has not been loved by the guilds, so I am really unsure. It
is directed by the Coens, and The Academy loves the Coens. I am hoping it gets
in there.
The films that are likely spoilers:
Philomena, a sentimental crowd pleaser, with a Best Actress
and Screenplay nominee lock
Blue Jasmine, a Woody Allen film
The Butler.........I hope not, but you never know.
Here is my final prediction, only 9.
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Gravity
The Wolf of Wall Street
Nebraska
Her
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Saving Mr. Banks
Alt: Inside Llewyn Davis or Philomena
I truly am happy with most of these films getting in for
Best Picture. The range of the movies in contention is quite impressive to me,
but that is props to great writers and directors out there who know what they
are doing. I do not know what will go down Thursday morning, but you best
believe I will be tuned in watching the live nominations telecast at 8:30am.
Here is to hoping they choose movies worthy of being called
"best".
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