The Home Stretch

It has been almost a month since I last posted on here. I felt the need to get my thoughts together on what has turned out to be one giant mess of an Oscar year, a good, giant mess. This year is one of those random years where just about anything can happen. Oscar predictors all across the board are frantically trying to figure out all the scenarios for winners come Oscar night; many have switched sides from predicting one movie to another, others are holding on to hope that they are predicting the right movies or performances to win. Some of these predictors are trying to get in the mind of an Academy member by looking to past trends, which is generally reliable, others are predicting what their heart is telling them...but in the end neither really matter. It’s as if everyone forgot that the Academy will do what they want and do not care what critics or other voting groups have chosen as their winners; they may nominate the same films and performances, but when it comes to winners, they do what they want. This has never changed, and it seems odd that so many have forgotten that. Nevertheless, here we are on the heels of The Academy Awards with the BAFTA'S, British Academy Awards, having just announced their shocking winners and it seems like there is nothing we can do now but watch as the pieces fall.

I, of course, have in my mind what I would like to see win, what I think the Academy will do, and what my heart wants. In some categories those three thoughts align, and in others it is completely all over the place, but I think that sums up exactly how the awards race has gone this year. People would like to think that the acting categories are locked up, and that Cate Blanchett, Matthew McConaughey, Lupita Nyong'o, and Jared Leto are bound for Oscar glory, but I refuse to believe that; it is the same for Best Picture:  Gravity vs 12 Years a Slave vs American Hustle, any one of them could win. I do not believe it is as locked as everyone thinks, I firmly believe there will be surprises on Oscar night. I have said that from day one, and I am sticking to it. At this point all you can do is make a good educated guess and unless you predict completely left wing nominees, you would probably come close to predicting the winners just as much as anyone else. I say all this, but the reason I created this blog was to predict and discuss the awards, so excuse the hypocrisy, I get this way towards the end of award season.

As we are almost two weeks away from the Oscars, there was one last chance to make an impact, which was at the BAFTA’S. Final voting ballots for the Oscars were sent out on Valentine’s Day, and BAFTA announced their winners on Sunday. The BAFTA will be fresh in the minds of voters, and you best believe the voters eyes were on these winners. So here is how it went down: 

Best Picture and Director

It has always been 12 Years a Slave vs Gravity vs American Hustle. Both Gravity and 12 Years are British made films, so both of them had wide support here. I thought if Gravity won, it would take Best Picture easily at the Oscars; but it had to settle with Best British Film. 12 Years a Slave came out on top taking Best Picture, but Gravity still has a chance at the Oscar's it just is going to have to fight. The movie in question is American Hustle. The BAFTA'S voting body were the first group, besides only the Academy who followed suit, to nominate the four actors from the film. That means there is obviously some huge love and support for the film. As everyone predicted, Alfonso Cuaron won Best Director. It seems as though, the British voting body, like the rest of the big awards groups, could not pick one film over the other. It is as if nobody can choose a winner, and everyone wants to just make everyone happy. It is like team sports for kids, everyone wins! In some ways it bothers me, because Best Picture and Director should go together. It is rare for there to be a split between those two, and it is never predictable like this seems to be, which makes me think the Academy is going to go all in for Picture and Director for either 12 years or Gravity. 

Best Actor

In my mind, this category is most important to me, for one reason. LEO. I said long before Oscar nominees were announced that if Leo gets nominated he will win the Oscar. This was Leo's chance to finally take Best Actor, but the British actor Chiwetel Ejiofor took it easily while riding the tails of 12 Years a Slave. Matthew McConaughey was shockingly snubbed from the BAFTAS, so Leo really needed this. BUT, and that is a big but, now Chiwetel Ejiofor could be a threat. Matthew will likely win at the Oscars, but my hope will still be with Leo. Leo is campaigning hard, and he really wants it, but Matthew seems to be too far out in front. 

Best Actress 

I really do not think anyone can beat Cate Blanchett, she won here with ease. The only thing that could affect her at this point would be the whole Woody Allen vs Mia Farrow fiasco; people have been ruthlessly speculating if it will crush her chances at winning the Oscar, mainly because the Academy likes to stay away from controversy. The people who have decided that it will crush her have opted for Amy Adams to sweep in at the 11th hour. I am not one of those people, and find it too difficult to choose Amy over Cate. Who I want to win has no hope at this point, because I think Cate may have this wrapped up with a pretty bow. 

Best Supporting Actor 

This category will be interesting as well. Like his leading co-star, Jared Leto was snubbed by the BAFTAS. This category was wide open, and everyone predicted Michael Fassbender would win, because of the love for 12 Years. I thought Bradley Cooper would pull out the shocking win, in the well loved American Hustle. I do not think anyone expected Barkhad Abdi from Captain Phillips to come along and win. It was a cool moment, but I am not sure he stands a chance against Jared Leto. 

Best Supporting Actress 

Lots of people believed that Lupita Nyong'o had this in the bag. I understood why everyone thought that, and part of me believed it to be true. Then the other part of me felt that if the BAFTA really liked American Hustle (and this is my thinking for the Oscars as well), enough to nominate it all across the board , will they really not vote for it to win a major award? That led me to believe that maybe Jennifer Lawrence could win this, even at the Oscars. As it turns out, Jennifer came out on top, crushing Lupita. This could be the same scenario that happens at the Oscars, they loved American Hustle enough to nominate it a lot, they will reward it somewhere, and Jennifer would likely benefit from it.  

Best Adapted and Original Screenplay 

I had no idea how to predict this category within the British voting body. Adapted screenplay went to the British film, Philomena and Original went to American Hustle. Most people are predicting 12 Years a Slave for Adapted and Her for Original at the Oscars, so who knows how this will go down. 

There really has not been any change in the awards race since my last post, as you can see. You may chose to disagree with me and think some categories are locked, but I just can't shake the feeling that there is something going on that we just do not know. I could be wrong, I will admit that. At this point in the awards race the Oscar campaigns are going strong, studios are trying to throw each other’s movies under the bus and create whisper campaigns to get them to notice their movies, and it gets ugly. Who knows where we will end up in two weeks? My hope is what it has been from the beginning, as long as they award worthy winners, I can be happy. The BAFTA's presented us with some new challengers and threw off everybody. It wouldn't be a good Oscar season without some surprises, and you can't say I didn't warn ya!

Look back later for my own "For Your Consideration" pleas, not that they will be heard, for who I want to win at the Oscars!

The Oscar Race: Where Do We Go From Here?

The race to the Oscars is a long winding road, with so many unexpected bumps, and unforeseen turns. Part of why I love doing this, aside from the fact that it is important to me to reward excellence in film making, is because the shocks of nominations and wins is just fun to watch. This past week has been so crazy that some categories are still so up in the air, because every award ceremony, which was suppose to create a consensus, has only provided us with a new bump or turn in the road. Predicting who wins, specifically for the Oscars, is becoming so unpredictable that anyone could win. The unpredictability of this year’s Oscar race is just so much fun, and I feel like I am on the edge of my seat constantly. Maybe its unpredictability is because there were just so many great performances and movies nominated this year that no one can make up their mind? I mean there is no other explanation for it. I have never seen an Oscar year so up in the air! I hope that makes you as excited as I am!

I cannot begin to describe to you how satisfied I was with the Oscar nominations. Everyone I wanted to be nominated was nominated, and that usually does not happen for me. Of course, there were shocks and some sad disappointing snubs, as I warned, but overall I think The Academy nominated things correctly. The sad disappointments were seeing Emma Thompson and Tom Hanks left out of the race. I do not think anyone saw that coming. Both of them were nominated at every big award ceremony, but they both owe their snubs to the two major characters from one of the Best Picture front-runner trio, American Hustle. I am referring to Amy Adams and Christian Bale. They both were nominated sporadically at awards, but their nominations over Emma and Tom proved that The Academy really liked American Hustle. David O. Russell has managed to get actors nominated in every category in back to back years, and that is something that is very rare. I am happy for both Amy and Christian, Christian being the more deserving of the two. Some of the shocking upsets were the Oprah snub and the Jonah Hill inclusion. Oprah was in the most overrated movie I have seen in years, The Butler, and I was happy to see her name left off the list. In fact, The Butler was completely shut of the Oscars. I give The Academy props for seeing right through that movie. Jonah Hill, whom I held on to hope for a nomination for his work in The Wolf of Wall Street, was able to push out some stiff competition, after not a single nomination anywhere, and get a Supporting Actor nomination. The other two shocks worth mentioning were the snubs of Paul Greengrass for Best Director and Saving Mr. Banks for Best Picture. Paul was replaced by Alexander Payne, the director of Nebraska, which I am okay with. Saving Mr. Banks was replaced by Philomena, and I am okay with Saving Mr. Banks being left out; I am more on the fence of its replacement choice. Until I see Philomena, I feel that spot should have gone to Inside Llewyn Davis. Inside Llewyn Davis deserved a Best Picture nomination, and that was kind of a letdown; but like I said, overall, the nominations were great! 

Now that I got that out of the way, we can discuss the state of the Oscar race. With the Oscar nominations out and most of the major awards having been given, there are now front-runners in each category. So let’s do a category by category analysis, just to be aware of where we are and where we are going. 

BEST PICTURE

I have never been witness to a more unpredictable category. 12 Years a Slave has been the one to beat from the beginning, with Gravity its strongest competitor. Then American Hustle came in, legitimately, like a wrecking ball to challenge both films to be top dog. From award ceremony to award ceremony, American Hustle and 12 Years would win their respected Best Picture categories of comedy and drama with Gravity taking home Best Director. From then on, up until last night, everyone started predicting an Oscar split with 12 Years a Slave trumping American Hustle for Best Picture and Gravity winning Best Director. Here is the thing, since the Academy expanded the Best Picture category from 5 to 10, then to a number between 5 and 10, the Best Picture winning film won both the Producer's Guild award and Director's Guild Award, so everyone thought that the PGA and the DGA would clear up who will win Best Picture. Nope. The PGA announced their winner last night, and they had their first ever tie since their creation in 1989. The PGA winners were Gravity and 12 Years a Slave. So if you wish to go by the trend of the Best Picture winning the PGA, then American Hustle would not be winning Best Picture. That would mean that Best Picture is now between 12 Years and Gravity, the original two competitors. Most people are predicting that Gravity will take home the DGA. Again, here is my thing, I feel that Best Picture and Best Director should go hand in hand, and usually they do, it is rare to see a split. I think if Gravity takes home the DGA, then it should win Best Picture and Director at the Oscars. Same goes with the reverse, If 12 Years takes home DGA, then it should win Best Picture and Director at the Oscars. The only way American Hustle will win is if votes split between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave, and at this point that could be a very probable outcome. American Hustle is still in the race. I cannot see The Academy not rewarding American Hustle with at least one Oscar, but in which category will that one be? I am not sure who the DGA will choose; they could bring us to yet another turn in the race. It really is up to them! 

If I had to choose right now who I believe will win Best Picture, I would choose 12 Years a Slave. My heart is behind Gravity, and I hope to see it challenge 12 Years all the way until the announcement of the Best Picture winner. This category is just too close to call!! 

Best Director 

Alfonso Cuaron deserves this award. Gravity would be nothing without his brilliant directing. He will likely win the DGA, but I could be wrong. He has won most of the directing awards up to this point; I do not see it stopping, although if it does, it will be by Steve McQueen or David O. Russell. Like I already said, Director and Picture should go hand in hand. If they love one movie enough for it to win Director, shouldn't it be loved enough to win Best Picture? I am really not so sure anymore. 

The winner should be Alfonso, could be Steve, but I would look out for David O. Russell. 

BEST ACTOR 

I am not so sure anyone fully expected Matthew McConaughey to be the front-runner for Best Actor. His performance was impressive, and deserving for the win, but I do not feel he is a sure thing. At every award ceremony, besides SAG, Leonardo DiCaprio and Matthew would take Best Actor in the comedy and drama categories. Leo was not nominated at the SAG's because The Wolf of Wall Street's screeners were not sent out in time to be seen by all of the nomination body of voters. So it seems Matthew is the front-runner....but Matthew was snubbed at the BAFTAS where Leo was not. There is a back in forth thing happening between the two of them, because they have not been given the chance to go head to head in the same category. The only time they will compete in the same category is at the Oscars. I have a feeling Leo may win, just because he is overdue for a win and everyone wants to see him finally win. Matthew is his biggest challenger of course. I would not be surprised if either of them wins. I loved both performances and I find them to be equally deserving of the win. 

My right now choice would be Matthew. If Leo wins the BAFTA, then I feel he might finally win. It could go either way. 

BEST ACTRESS 

Cate Blanchett has cleaned up this awards season for her fantastic performance in Blue Jasmine. She won every major award starting with the critics all the way till now. People thought Sandra Bullock would be her biggest challenger, and I thought so too until Oscar nominations. Amy Adams has come into the spotlight, winning Best Actress on the comedy side where Blanchett won on the drama side, the same way as Matthew and Leo have done. Amy has not had to face off with Cate, because Amy was snubbed by SAG. Their first chance to face off will be at the BAFTAS, if Amy happens to pull off the upset then she has a shot at beating Cate for the Oscar. Just so we are clear though, taking down Cate will not be easy, and it could be near impossible. The only reason Amy has a slight chance at beating Cate would be because she has never won an Oscar before, and Cate has. That is why I say if Amy happens to win at the BAFTAS, look out Cate. I personally do not think Amy would be deserving over Cate, or really any of the other women in her category. She was great in American Hustle, but I just do not think it would be seen as a good Oscar win if Amy were to win. Next year Amy has another shot at Best Actress, so it’s in her best interest to wait until then, but of course it is not really up to her. 

The Oscar is Cate Blanchett's to lose. My heart wants to see Sandra win, but that is not happening. I only advise you to keep an eye on Amy. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

NO ONE, and I repeat NO ONE is beating Jared Leto. His performance was fantastic! He met the great supporting actor standard: when his character was not on screen you were left wondering where he was and what he was doing. He will win, and rightfully so. The only thing is, he was snubbed from the BAFTAS, not that it matters a ton because many people have been snubbed by them and still won, but it does open up a chance for someone to challenge him. I predict Michael Fassbender will win the BAFTA, but in the end he does not stand a real chance at the Oscars. 

Jared has this in the bag. Shout out though to Jonah Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street. Jonah had my favorite supporting performance of the year next to Jared. I am happy he was nominated and recognized for his incredible performance. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

I have been on Lupita Nyong'o's side from the beginning. Out of all of the acting performances this year, her performance in 12 Years a Slave has remained in my head. I think about it often for some reason, and that is a sure sign of her acting abilities. This was her debut film!! She deserves to win, but she has a big and fierce competitor, Jennifer Lawrence. I loved Jennifer in American Hustle. I would be happy seeing her win, again, but it would be sad to see Lupita lose. I have no idea who will the Oscar. Both Lupita and Jennifer have gone back and forth for wins, so I cannot see a definite winner. Both are deserving, actually I think all of the women in the category would be deserving! 

Choosing right now, I would go with Lupita. I would be happy with Jennifer Lawrence. My heart secretly wants Julia Roberts to win, but that is not really an option at this stage of the race. 

SCREENPLAY 

No one should beat Spike Jonze's incredible writing for Her. It will likely win Original Screenplay, although, American Hustle could win. David O. Russell is the writer, and I can't see American Hustle not winning at least one Oscar, so this could be it. The screenplay categories at the Oscars generally have at least one upset. So who knows?

Adapted Screenplay, I really have no idea. It would be between Before Midnight and 12 Years a Slave, although The Wolf of Wall Street winning would not be a surprise. 

Hopefully the WGA, Writers Guild, will clear some things up. Right now: 

Original- Her is my first choice. Look out for American Hustle. 

Adapted- My gut says Before Midnight, but my gut has been wrong before. 

ANIMATED FEATURE 

Frozen. Frozen. Frozen. I was sadly disappointed when Monsters University got left off the list, which would have been my second choice. Frozen was truly great! The past couple Disney animated musicals have really let me down, but this one really impressed me. The music is great and the characters were just lovable. Its biggest competition is The Wind Rises, which cleaned up with the critics. 

Again I say- Frozen. Frozen. Frozen. Although it should watch its back for The Wind Rises. 

With the DGA, WGA, BAFTAS yet to come things are left all over the place, aside from the Supporting Actor category. The races are all close ones, and my heart is so torn in all of them. I guess no matter what, I should just be thankful that the nominees are great, and just be happy with whatever and whomever wins. Like always, expect some shocks and upsets! We are still in the same place as we were from the beginning,  with no consensus, and that only makes doing this more fun! Hold tight everyone, we are still heading down the hill. 

The SAG Award Winners

The Screen Actor's Guild Awards took place this past Saturday, and nothing about it on the film side was unpredictable. Of course, like in every ceremony that honors TV, there were a few surprises on that side. Things are still crazy though, and a lot has yet to unfold.

Two things to keep in mind about the SAG awards; One, Best Acting Ensemble is equivalent to Best Picture. Two, the acting branch of the Academy is the largest branch, so basically the actors have more say on who wins. The Screen Actors Guild has many Academy members. So we may see this same group of actors winning at the Oscars, it is possible that there could be upsets.....but as of now they are the strongest Oscar contenders.

Here are the winners for both Film and TV:

FILM

Best Acting Ensemble- American Hustle
Best Actor in a Leading Role- Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Actress in a Leading Role- Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Actor in a Supporting Role- Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Actress in a Supporting Role- Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave

TV

Best Acting Ensemble in a Drama Series- Breaking Bad
Best Actor in a Drama Series- Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Best Actress in a Drama Series- Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Best Acting Ensemble in a Comedy Series- Modern Family
Best Actor in a Comedy Series- Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Best Actress in a Comedy Series- Julie Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Best Actor in a Movie/Mini Series- Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra
Best Actress in a Movie/Mini Series- Helen Mirren, Phil Spector

Critic's Choice Award Winners

I forgot to remind everyone about The Critic's Choice Awards that happened tonight! It has just been an eventful day. I feel the tides are turning. I thought the winners of the Critic's Choice were all worthy! The biggest surprise of the evening was seeing Lupita Nyong'o win Best Supporting Actress for 12 Years a Slave, she even got some standing ovations.  With the Oscar nominations announced this morning, Critics Choice happening this evening, and SAG awards going down on Sunday things are just getting crazy! Hold tight!!

The Winners

Best Picture- 12 Years a Slave
Best Director- Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Best Actor- Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Actress- Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Supporting Actor- Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Supporting Actress- Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Best Young Actor/Actress- Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color
Best Acting Ensemble- American Hustle
Best Original Screenplay- Her
Best Adapted Screenplay- 12 Years a Slave
Art Direction- The Great Gatsby
Costume Design- The Great Gatsby
Editing- Gravity
Visual Effects- Gravity
Make-up- American Hustle
Animated Feature- Frozen
Best Action Movie- Lone Survivor
Best Action Movie Actor- Mark Wahlberg, Lone Survivor
Best Action Movie Actress- Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Best Comedy- American Hustle
Best Comedy Actor- Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Best Comedy Actress- Amy Adams, American Hustle
Best Sci-fi/Horror Movie- Gravity
Foreign Language Film- Blue is the Warmest Color
Best Documentary- 20 Feet from Stardom
Best Song- Let it Go from Frozen
Best Score- Gravity


Minus the Jennifer Lawrence win from the Golden Globes and fill in Lupita Nyong'o, you have almost the exact same winners! The avalanche is still falling!

86th Academy Award Nominations

The Oscar nominations were just announced!!! I could not be more pleased with these nominations. I do not have an angry bone in my body! I will save my thoughts for another post, for the sake of getting out the information. So i give you the 86th Academy Award nominations: 

Best Picture 

American Hustle 
12 Years a Slave
Gravity 
The Wolf of Wall Street
Nebraska 
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club 
Philomena 
Her

Best Director 

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity 
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave 
David O. Russell, American Hustle 
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street 
Alexander Payne, Nebraska 

Best Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club 
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave 
Bruce Dern, Nebraska 
Christian Bale, American Hustle 

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine 
Amy Adams, American Hustle 
Judi Dench, Philomena 
Sandra Bullock, Gravity 
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County 

Best Supporting Actor 

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club 
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave 
JONAH HILL, The Wolf of Wall Street 
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips 
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle 

Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle 
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave 
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County 
June Squibb, Nebraska 
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine 

Best Original Screenplay 

Her
American Hustle 
Blue Jasmine 
Dallas Buyers Club
Nebraska 

Best Adapted Screenplay 

12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
Before Midnight 
Philomena
Captain Phillips 

Best Animated Feature 

Frozen
The Wind Rises
The Croods
Despicable Me 2 
Ernest & Celestine 

Cinematography 

Gravity 
The Grandmaster 
Inside Llewyn Davis 
Nebraska 
Prisoners 

Costume Design 

American Hustle 
The Grandmaster 
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman 
12 Years a Slave 

Documentary Feature 

The Act of Killing 
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
20 Feet from Stardom 
The Square 

Best Documentary Short Subject

CaveDigger
Facing Fear
Karama Has No Walls
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

Film Editing

American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
12 Years a Slave

Best Foreign Language Film

The Broken Circle Breakdown from Belgium
The Great Beauty from Italy
The Hunt from Denmark
The Missing Picture from Cambodia
Omar from Palestine

Makeup and Hairstyling

Dallas Buyers Club
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger

Original Score

The Book Thief
Gravity
Her
Philomena
Saving Mr. Banks

Original Song

Alone Yet Not Alone from Alone Yet Not Alone
Happy from Despicable Me 2
Let It Go from Frozen
The Moon Song from Her
Ordinary Love from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Production Design

American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Her
12 Years a Slave

Best Animated Short Film

Feral
Get a Horse!
Mr. Hublot
Possessions
Room on the Broom

Best Live Action Short Film

Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me)
Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just before Losing Everything)
Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)
The Voorman Problem

Sound Editing

All Is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor

Sound Mixing

Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor 

Visual Effects

Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek Into Darkness

My Oscar Predictions

Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning, bright and early at 8:30am. All of our hopes, wishes, favorites, dreams, predictions will all be shattered in a matter of hours. Movies that we have loved, performances that have meant something to us, may be forgotten. It happens every year. The Academy has chosen what they liked, and have forgone the path of the critics and the consensus, for years now, and yet we shake our heads in disbelief at their choices. We should expect some shocks, surprises, and disappointments are likely. Let's just hope their nominees will be ones that bring a smile to our faces, and not cause us to throw our hands in the air in anger.

I am going to share with you what I feel will happen tomorrow morning, at least in the main categories:

Best Picture
12 years a Slave
American Hustle
Gravity
The Wolf of Wall Street
Nebraska
Captain Phillips
Her
Dallas Buyers Club
Saving Mr. Banks
Alt: Inside Llewyn Davis or Philomena

Best Director 
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Steve McQueen, 12 years a Slave
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Alt: Spike Jonze, her ; Alexander Payne, Nebraska ; Jean-Marc Vallee

Best Actor
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejifor, 12 Years a Slave
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Alt: Robert Redford, All is Lost ; Christian Bale, American Hustle

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Amy Adams, American Hustle (really up in the air on this choice)
Alt: Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Best Supporting Actor
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street (only because he deserves a spot)
Alt: Daniel Bruhl, Rush (the likely 5th spot nominee) ; James Gandolfini, Eough Said

Best Supporting Actress 
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
Alt: Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

Best Adapted Screenplay 
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
Philomena
Captain Phillips
Before Midnight

Best Original Screenplay 
Her
Nebraska
American Hustle
Inside Llewyn Davis
Dallas Buyers Club

Best Animated Feature 
Frozen
The Wind Rises
Monsters University
Despicable Me 2
The Croods

Not sure how it will go down in the morning. At this point, we can only hope for the best. I would love some happy unexpected shocks, I just hope they stay away from the bad shocks, unlike last year. I will put the nominees up tomorrow morning, as soon as I find out! Move out of the way of the avalanche, because it is about to crash.

The Best Picture Hopefuls

Finally, we have come to the category that most people want to discuss. It is funny… the people that I talk with, people who could not care less about Oscars, find the Best Picture category worthy of discussing. Maybe the reason for that could be that people like to watch movies and go to see them in the theaters. It is a cultural thing. So when the subject of Best Picture comes up, I find passion for what they consider to be the "best" of the year. Generally, what they think is best differs drastically from what I, or more so, The Academy thinks is best, but it is something that stirs up discussion from people who do not even follow or care about The Oscars. Everyone has their opinion, and of course is entitled to that, at least for now. My personal favorite movie of the year has not even been buzzed about for Oscars, and I am fine with that, but I will share that later. Right now let’s just discuss what the Academy may think is "best". 

With Oscar nomination morning quickly approaching, everyone is frantically trying to predict what or whom they will nominate. All of the major award happenings are only enhancing the madness. They all forget a few minor things they have to keep in mind about The Academy:  One, they do not care what the critics think is the best for any category. Two, they do what they want. Three, they prefer the feel -good Oscar type film over the controversial/political statement movies. Four, they like who they like and will continue to hate or nominate whomever they so choose, ala Leonardo DiCaprio and Meryl Streep respectively. Lastly, you cannot predict what YOU think is best, because you are not an Academy member. If you are going to try to predict the Oscars, you must remember those few minor points. So in saying that, I will do my best to get in the mind of an Academy member, and share with you what they will likely nominate for Best Picture, as well as the outside dark horses. 

Here we go: 

12 Years a Slave has been the one to beat since its premiere. It is a great movie, one worthy of the title Best Picture. There has never been a movie about slavery from a slave point of view to ever be considered an Oscar contender. It is a movie that has stirred up talk about slavery and the ever present reality of racism in the world today. Many critics have said that it is a movie of our time. The film has some of the most memorable scenes of any movie I have seen this year, that have truly stuck with me, and that have caused me to see the importance of the film. On top of all of that, it is one of the best acted films of the year, thanks to Chiwetel Ejifor, Lupita Nyong'o, and Michael Fassbender. You simply cannot underestimate this movie and down play its significance, but with as many things as it has going for it, it has an equal amount of things going against it. Whenever there has been a movie that has stirred up controversy at the Oscars, the voters split, giving one film Best Picture and the other Best Director, for example; The Godfather winning Best Picture and Bob Fosse took Best Director for Cabaret, Chariots of Fire BP winner and Warren Beatty BD for Reds, Shakespeare in Love BP and Spielberg BD for Saving Private Ryan, Gladiator BP and Steven Soderbergh BD for Traffic, Chicago BP and Roman Polanski BD for The Pianist, and Crash BP and Ang Lee BD for Brokeback Mountain. All of those movies were examples of two movies that were loved and praised, but because one was controversial they could not award it both Best Picture and Best Director. This could be what is happening this year. After the Golden Globe split with 12 Years a Slave winning Best Picture Drama and the Gravity director, Alfonso Cuaron winning Best Director, it is likely that this is what will happen with the Academy. Generally, if the movie is loved, so is the director, they are supposed to go hand in hand, except when it is a controversial movie. I cannot see a scenario where the Academy does not reward 12 Years a Slave with some big praise, be that in acting/director/best picture. As of now, Best Picture is 12 Years a Slave’s to lose. 

Gravity has been the rival of 12 Years a Slave, and that has not stopped. Gravity, my personal choice for Best Picture, is a show stopper. No film this year has wowed as many people as Gravity has, and that is due mostly to its visual effects and its thrilling story line. Sandra Bullock gives an outstanding performance, one that I secretly would like to see her win the Oscar for. The success of the film needs to be credited to the brilliant directing of Alfonso Cuaron! I have watched some behind the scenes videos of the making of Gravity, and the things they had to do to create and make the film is just outstanding. Here is the problem with Gravity, as well loved as it is, there has never been a movie nominated for Best Picture with only two actors; and no 3D film has ever won Best Picture, although Avatar and Hugo came close. The Academy demographic is too old to embrace the new technologies, but the nominations and possible Best Director win (and hopefully Best Picture win) could be a sign that they are ready to embrace it. Here is to hoping. 

Both 12 Years a Slave and Gravity have been completely shaken up by the unforeseen praise of American Hustle. At first everyone wrote it off, and then out of nowhere, everyone turned around and started praising it. It won Best Musical/Comedy Picture at the Golden Globes. It is a movie that is easy to love; there is no controversy, no 3D, it is your standard Oscar film. A film that does not cause you to think, it only asks that you show up to the movie theater and enjoy, that my friends is what the Academy wants. Of course, once you add to it Hollywood's favorite stars Amy Adams, Jennifer Lawrence, Bradley Cooper, Christian Bale, and Jeremy Renner being directed by an overdue director, David O. Russell, it only cements it as a formidable challenger to any movie. It is a great movie, one that I enjoyed, but I would not consider it the greatest choice for Best Picture. If it won, I would not be upset, but I cannot help but think The Academy would later regret picking it for Best Picture if they do so. American Hustle is the movie to look out for. If it happens to clean clock with SAG ensemble, PGA, Critics Choice, and BAFTA then this movie is a force to be reckoned with. Until then, it is simply just a Best Picture nomination lock. 

Outside of those three movies, I am not so sure what would be next in line to win Best Picture. I can only tell you what I think is locked for a nomination. This would also be a moment to inform you about The Academy voting policy. The current rule for Best Picture nominations is that the Academy will nominate anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees. That means, depending on the love of certain movies, we could see any random number between 5 and 10, last year and the year before there were 9. It is a preferential balloting system which means it has to get ranked at number one on enough voters’ ballots to get nominated for Best Picture; once those spots are filled, then the movies that come at number 2 and 3 on ballots get shoved in to a nomination. Once a film gets 5% of the vote, it is automatically a Best Picture contender. The process is quite confusing, if you want an in-depth explanation, Google search it. I am going out on a limb and assuming there will again be 9 nominees, but for this I will choose 10, so outside of the 3 I have already discussed, the next likely contender are; 

Nebraska

Captain Phillips 

Her

The Wolf of Wall Street 

Those four films have run the gauntlet, and have come out approved by critics and all of the major awards groups. I cannot see any of them being snubbed of a nomination, but none of them really stand a chance of winning. Just because I do not think they stand a chance in winning, does not make them weak contenders by any means, it is just that there is no way they can overcome the hype of 12 Years, Gravity, and American Hustle. These four movies will also pick up other nominations for writing, maybe some acting, possibly directing, and that will add to their strength as a contender. For them to be a challenger to win, they would need some wins coming up in the Critics Choice, SAG, PGA, or BAFTA, only then will I consider the possibility of one of them winning. The next and final spots I am predicting for Best Picture are kind of hard to choose; especially if they only pick 9.....I will have to go with my gut; 

Dallas Buyers Club 

Saving Mr. Banks 

Inside Llewyn Davis 

Both Dallas Buyers Club and Saving Mr. Banks got nominated at the PGA awards, and of course some other nominations, but because the PGA has a heavy influence on the Best Picture race I felt like they are the two that would be chosen. I really feel though, that Inside Llewyn Davis will make it in, but it just has not been loved by the guilds, so I am really unsure. It is directed by the Coens, and The Academy loves the Coens. I am hoping it gets in there. 

The films that are likely spoilers: 

Philomena, a sentimental crowd pleaser, with a Best Actress and Screenplay nominee lock 

Blue Jasmine, a Woody Allen film 

The Butler.........I hope not, but you never know. 

Here is my final prediction, only 9. 

12 Years a Slave 

American Hustle 

Gravity 

The Wolf of Wall Street 

Nebraska 

Her

Captain Phillips 

Dallas Buyers Club

Saving Mr. Banks 

Alt: Inside Llewyn Davis or Philomena 

I truly am happy with most of these films getting in for Best Picture. The range of the movies in contention is quite impressive to me, but that is props to great writers and directors out there who know what they are doing. I do not know what will go down Thursday morning, but you best believe I will be tuned in watching the live nominations telecast at 8:30am. Here is to hoping they choose movies worthy of being called "best".